How Successful People Overcome Uncertainty

 by @AlexBatsuk on @LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-only-elite-beat-uncertainty-alexander-b-batsuk

n time of doubt, have you ever felt the subtle urge to do something that you ignored to only regret later?  All of us have a facility within us, a subconscious guide, which can help us be more successful if we just learn how to recognize it in order to follow its suggestions. 

Let’s first understand what uncertainty is.  While there are different types and definitions of uncertainty, its meaning simply boils down to having limited knowledge of the future outcome of the present events.  In other words, we may be in the middle of something that we don't fully comprehend or aren't sure about its consequences.  There are two key factors of uncertainty: lack of knowledge of the present and the inability to predict the future.

Human beings are deeply wired with a strong desire to understand and predict.  Such primitive tendencies stem from thousands of years ago because they were likely used to obtain basic life necessities, like shelter and food.  Since these fundamental desires are so ingrained in us, we are driven by them constantly without even realizing it.  It's when we cannot fully understand or are unable to predict that we find ourselves in the state of uncertainty. 

Among other influencers, our decision making process to a great extent is driven by these two tendencies.  Let’s look at each of them closer.

Desire to Predict.  For instance, while in bad traffic on the way to work, what is it that motivates you to switch lanes instead of staying in the same lane?  I'd submit that, for one reason or another, you may be predicting that the lane you are switching to would get you to work faster.  Disagree?  Okay, perhaps, in the moment of complete irrationality, you may really be looking for a slower lane. Joking aside, our desire to predict is so strong that its inability can create a level of frustration and anxiety.

Desire to Understand.  Our ability to predict is strongly grounded in our present knowledge, which in turn is formed by our desire to understand.  At our core, we are curious and meaning-seeking creatures—we want to know and we want to understand.  Let’s go back to the traffic example.  When you find yourself to be suddenly stuck in traffic, don't you just itch to know what’s going on?  To satisfy your curiosity, you may even try to stare as far as you can see ahead of you, attempt to check the information on the navigation system, check the Waze app, call someone, etc.  You just want to know. 

When your curiosity is not satisfied, you find yourself in a suspended or unresolved state.  Such unresolved state is uncertainty, which creates restlessness and a strong gravitational pull toward wanting to resolve the unknown into known.  Prolonged times in such state not only can create agitation and anxiety but can also develop sickening fear.  This is true for employees in a workplace and for our personal lives in general.  

Uncertainty and Control

What’s more interesting, I think, is how strongly related these two tendencies of the desire to understand and the desire to predict are.  In fact, I would like to suggest that the desire to understand exists so that we can predict, making the desire to predict the primary tendency. 

Noteworthy, we don't just want to know things—we want to know the reasons behindthings.  And the likely reason that we want to know the reasons behind things is that we want to know the cause-and-effect relationship.  Admittedly, the reason that we want to know the cause-and-effect relationship is that ultimately we want to be able to use such patterns to predict the outcomes of our choices, actions, and current events in general. 

Why?  Because the ability to predict gives us a feeling of being in control (even if we aren’t) by removing the fear of the unknown.  If we feel we are in control, we are not afraid.  On the contrary, when we feel uncertain or in doubt, we develop anxiety and fear because we don’t feel in control.

Therefore, it’s possible then to argue that the uncertainty isn't necessarily some “external factors,” but instead it’s our reaction to the external factors—and more specifically, it’s the feeling of fear of having no control over the external factors.  If that’s true, then the one way to fight this fear is by gaining the feeling of being in control.  How do you gain the feeling of control over the inability to understand and predict?  It’s by following your gut feeling.

Gut Feeling as a Tool

Remember, it isn’t having control that removes fear but, rather, having a feeling of being in control.  In the time of uncertainty, if you don't have sufficient information, or the information is conflicting, confusing, or unreliable, rationalizing things by engaging the conscious part of your brain may not be helpful.  In fact, it’s likely to result in more anxiety as you put your brain through the analytical exercise of searching for the answers that may not necessarily be discoverable.

Look, I am not undervaluing the typical techniques that help decrease ambiguity in dealing with uncertainty, like preparing for multiple outcomes (including the inevitable and the worst), reducing the number of choices, acting and not looking back, or eating the elephant one bite at a time.  Many of the risk management techniques are useful but not beyond the point of lack of knowledge, only until which your conscious mind can be helpful.

In time of uncertainty, instead, you should try to rely on the subconscious mind that we also often call gut feeling (hunch, instinct, or intuition).  You see, your subconsciousness has already processed all information without you even recognizing it and has formed a valuable insight.  All you have to do is tune-in and listen to that deep gnawing in the pit of your stomach.  There is absolutely no need to rush or delay.  Nor is there any need to explain or make sense of it.  Simply, take the steps incrementally that you feel you need to be taking without trying to think through it or attempting to rationalize it.

There is no worse pain of regret than wishing you had just listened to yourself.  Every time I had suppressed my gut, I regretted it later.  The future pain resulting from not following your gut and failing is much greater than the pain resulting from following your gut and failing.  Failure is just that—a failure.  The difference between the two approaches, however, clearly lies in the additionalmental anguish you put yourself through after you didn’t follow your gut.  In other words, this is the situation when you start grilling yourself with “I knew I shouldn't have done this.”  Or “Why didn't I just do what I felt like doing?”

Friends, the world is full of uncertainty, both at work and in life. Uncertainty is natural, and all of us have to deal with it.  We will never know all of the information for various reasons.  Agonizing over the things we don't understand or the things we don't know is a waste of energy.  

The most successful people don't get paralyzed by the uncertainty and don't indulge in fear.  Instead, the most successful people are guttypeople who recognize that uncertainty is nothing but a feeling, and they use their gut feeling as a guide to move forward.